Quantitative Assessments of the Liquefaction Hazard of Soils considering Possible Strong Earthquakes in Seismically Active Regions of Russia

The seismogenic liquefaction of the soil poses a great hazard to society and the environment. Therefore, it is actively studied in many countries. In Russian engineering and seismological practice, this area is not sufficiently developed. The deterministic approach still prevails in Russian research on this topic. More modern probabilistic estimates are very rare.

This paper describes examples of both deterministic and probabilistic assessments of the seismogenic liquefaction hazard performed in certain areas of the Russian territory with different seismogeological conditions. Deterministic estimates were made using the Iwasaki-Seed-Finn methods and their modifications. Probability distribution functions of a random variable, the “seismic potential of liquefaction” (SPL), were developed for probabilistic estimates. These functions are regional in nature and take into account two types of uncertainties. The first is the uncertainty in achieving “critical” values by the SPL value in the event of potentially dangerous earthquake sources for a given location. The second is the uncertainty in the very occurrence of these sources in a given place for a given period of time. The “critical” SPL values are determined by the strength properties of the site soils. All estimates are based on multivariate calculations using various models of strong ground motions and seismicity. In all cases, the probability of liquefaction of water-saturated sandy and sandy-loam deposits was estimated which were found near the seabed and at depths of up to 80 m in the waters of Pogibi cape (the coast of Sakhalin island), in the districts of Sochi and Novorossiysk, as well as in land conditions (Stavropol, Krasnodar).

The results of the research made it possible to correctly (at the quantitative level) take into account this component of the seismic hazard of the studied territories.

The variants of practical use of the obtained data are offered. An assessment of the possibilities and limitations of the developed methodology is made, and ways to improve it are outlined.